The defeat of the president and his coalition is clearly confirmed. Melenchon has already called for the president to do this. The prime minister is appointed by the president.
Will Macron remain in office?
A woman casts her ballot in the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024 in Rennes, western France. A man picks up ballots in a the voting station during the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024 in Olwisheim , eastern France. A woman picks up ballots at a polling station to vote in the second round of the legislative elections, in Lyon, central France, Sunday, July 7, 2024. A voter casts his ballot during the second round of the legislative elections, in Lyon, central France, Sunday, July 7, 2024. A woman casts her ballot in the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024 in Strasbourg, eastern France. A voter casts her ballot during the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024 in Paris.
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LFI reacted by suspending negotiations, demanding that all parties agree upon on a single candidacy for the presidency of the National Assembly, and refusing the possibility of a civil society figure being appointed prime minister, after which the PS, LE, and PCF pushed for discussions to resume and proposed appointing a civil society figure as prime minister, Laurence Tubiana, a hypothesis publicly rejected by LFI figureheads as too “Macron-compatible.” Tubiana dismissed the possibility of becoming prime minister on 22 July. Huguette Bello emerged as a possible name for prime minister on 12 July, proposed by Roussel but resisted by the PS, which failed to approve Bello’s candidacy on 13 July and called for further discussions. Tondelier declined to rule out the possibility of participating in a coalition but indicated her desire not to do so and her opposition to a Macron-aligned prime minister. In an interview on 1 July, Aurore Bergé signaled openness to a coalition with members of other parties, including “the Republicans who didn’t want to corrupt themselves with Éric Ciotti and with the RN, with certain members of the Socialist Party, the ecologists, the communists,” a view shared by the leader of alliance partner Horizons Édouard Philippe.
- No leader has been put forward as a potential prime minister by the left bloc yet.
- He then allied his party with the Socialists, Communists and greens to form the New Popular Ecological and Social Union.
- Laurent Wauquiez ruled out the possibility of LR participating in a potential coalition just after the results were announced.
- Of the 22 deputies in the Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group before the snap election was called, 14 were re-elected.
- The shape of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on 7 July.
- Some candidates may drop out before 7 July to give an ally a better chance of stopping a rival from winning, for example from the far right.
Generic candidates
Political custom dictates the president should pick a prime minister from the party or coalition with the most seats in the parliament. The left alliance, dubbed the New Popular Front, was projected to get 145 to 175 seats, trade99 reviews with Macron’s centrist coalition lagging behind at 118 to 148 seats (compared to 250 in the outgoing chamber). Hundreds of candidates across the 577 electoral constituencies in France withdrew from the races this week to prevent a split in the anti-RN vote.
Takeaways from the European parliamentary elections
- The first round eliminates all candidates who fail to win the support of 12.5% of locally registered voters.
- Instead, Mr Bardella focuses on cutting VAT (sales tax) on energy and a list of 100 essential goods and repealing the Macron pension reforms in a matter of months.
- He confirmed that the RN continued to intend to abolish jus soli because “the automatic acquisition of French nationality is no longer justified in a world of 8 billion people, with our daily struggles of our inability to integrate and assimilate them multiplying on our soil,” and expressed his desire to both “re-establish the offence of illegal stays” and solidify these proposals in the constitution “to also make them untouchable by European or international jurisprudence” through a national referendum.
- Danielle Simonnet, LFI deputy for Paris’s 15th constituency, organised a “rally against the far-right” after four of her supporters were tear-gassed, assaulted, and called “anti-Semitic bastards” by a group of far-right supporters while putting up election posters in the 20th arrondissement of Paris on the evening of 2 July.
- Some French youth are astonished by the number of people supporting the far-right National Rally.
- Attal will stay on in a caretaker role for a while because of the Paris Olympics, which kick off later this month.
- NFP leaders called for the appointment of a prime minister from the left, but Ensemble and LR figures advocated for an alliance and threatened that any NFP-led government including ministers from La France Insoumise (LFI) would face an immediate vote of no confidence.
Macron was not required to accept Attal’s resignation, and the latter noted that he would be willing to remain in his post as long as necessary, and Macron ultimately refused his resignation “for the time being” on the morning of 8 July. Results listed below are according to the Ministry of the Interior, with some more specific parties for newly elected deputies listed in accordance with research by Le Monde. Only three blue-collar workers were elected (0.5% of the National Assembly), compared to their share of 19% in the overall population.
Henin-Beaumont is where Le Pen began to turn her father’s party from political pariah to a voter-friendly alternative. For many National Rally voters, last Sunday’s victory is revenge on a political class that they see as out of touch with everyday people and their concerns including crime, purchasing power and immigration. Le Pen planted herself in the northern town of Henin-Beaumont in the early 2000s, hoping to win over disenchanted voters feeling left behind by the new economy. The lack of majority for any single alliance has plunged France into political and economic turmoil. People wait for the results of the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024 in Nantes, western France. Mélenchon is the most prominent of the leftist leaders who unexpectedly came together ahead of the two-round elections to keep the far right from power.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen says France will be “totally deadlocked” with three groups of similar size in the National Assembly and none with a majority. Far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen speaks to reporters. We await the final election xm group review results. Meanwhile, no clear figure has emerged as a possible prime minister. A deal could take the form of a loose, informal alliance that likely would be fragile. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally have 143 seats after leading in the first round.
With no detailed national election programme to run on, most LR candidates opted to campaign primarily on issues concerning their constituencies, rely on their strong local roots and name recognition velocity trade in order to fight for their survival, and keep their distance from the drama surrounding the other three main political forces and Ciotti’s alliance with the RN. While an unlikely alliance between centrists and the left has cut the chances of the far right gathering enough seats for the majority, that scenario cannot be excluded, potentially leading to France having a far-right government for the first time in the modern republic’s history. While the coalition has managed to keep France’s far-right away from power in the elections, which ended on Sunday, no single political party or alliance of parties has won a clear majority.
Ms Le Pen also has an eye on the next presidential election in three years’ time. “He killed off the presidential majority,” said Horizons leader and ex-Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. His centrist Ensemble alliance of Renaissance, Horizons and MoDem is languishing in the polls, behind a swiftly formed left-wing New Popular Front, made up of Socialists, Greens, Communists and the far-left France Unbowed (LFI). And yet he has left French politics and his own party in turmoil. Mr Macron had no need to call National Assembly elections for another three years.
This time, however, the Socialists are a far more powerful partner following the successful campaign of Socialist-backed candidate Raphaël Glucksmann in the European election. With unexpected speed, France’s left-wing parties have put aside their squabbles and united ahead of the vote. That’s both a blessing and a curse for Macron’s liberals and the left wing alliance. High turn-out means three candidates are likely to go through to the second round in up to 170 constituencies, according to recent projections, an increase from only… 8 in 2022. Current projections have Ensemble MPs falling to less than 110 seats in the 577-strong assembly, squeezed by both the left and the far right. While Ensemble currently controls a workable 250 seats in the parliament, it faces devastating losses in the election.
Chief of the National Rally party Jordan Bardella speaks on stage during the party congress in Paris, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. Even with the outcome still in doubt, Valerie Dodeman, a 55-year-old legal expert, said she is pessimistic about the future of France. “This is a concern for us,” Lubin said. As of noon local time, turnout was at 26.63%, according to France’s interior ministry. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard, File) FILE – People use their smartphones near the Olympic rings that are displayed on the Eiffel Tower in Paris, June 7, 2024 in Paris.
Ensemble
PARIS — France is about to hold parliamentary elections that are shaping up to be among its most divisive in recent history. Therefore, it can make sense to invoke 49.3, but only “if there isn’t a majority against the government”, Murray said. However, his government received tacit support from the conservative Republican party, Murray explained.
His party came third and he said it was time for France’s people and politicians “who do not recognise themselves in the extremist fever” to build a new coalition. The final list of candidates who will stand in the second round runoff will be known on Tuesday evening. There could be a significant number of constituencies facing a runoff between three or more candidates on 7 July. The far-right leader Marine Le Pen is hoping to be elected in her northern constituency in the first-round and hopes several of her outgoing MPs will do the same.
He also warned that the far-right would bring about the “impoverishment of the French people and the downfall of our country.” The dates of the first and second rounds of elections were set for 30 June and 7 July, respectively. On 9 October, Barnier survived a motion of no confidence led by 193 members of the NFP and 4 members of LIOT members support.not verified in body Another motion of no confidence, led by the National Rally and the leftist coalition on 4 December, successfully ousted Barnier with 331 votes in favor. Analysts noted that the failure of any bloc to attain support from an absolute majority of deputies could lead to institutional deadlock because any government must be able to survive motions of no confidence against them.
French legislative election
Some analysts also envisaged the possibility of an Italian-style technocratic government or a 2020 Belgian-like temporary minority government of independent figures prior to a second snap election. NFP voters also backed LR candidates over RN ones in second-round duels by a 70%–2% margin, and Ensemble voters by a 79%–4% margin. An Ipsos survey suggested that the “republican front” against the RN remained fairly strong in the second round, with first-round NFP voters supporting Ensemble candidates over RN ones by a 72%–3% margin in second-round duels and first-round Ensemble voters supporting PS/LE/PCF candidates over RN ones by a 54%–15% margin in second-round duels. Macron also called Ensemble candidates to pressure them to not drop out up until the last moment, with his inner circle reportedly becoming more comfortable with the idea of an RN victory even as Attal warned about the dangers of the far-right coming to power. Bergé, interviewed after the first round, reaffirmed that candidates would withdraw to block the RN except in the case that it might help to elect an LFI deputy, with other parties in the alliance sharing a similar line of case-by-case withdrawals in runoffs with LFI candidates, but Attal also emphasised that withdrawals did not constitute endorsements and that the alliance would not officially issue any voting instructions, even if individual candidates did. In a press release on 27 June, the French Communist Party (PCF) confirmed that it would instruct its voters to support a “republican candidate” against the RN in the second round, and that its candidates would withdraw if they advanced to the second round but finished third in the first.
The election followed the dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron, triggering a snap election after the National Rally (RN) made substantial gains and Macron’s Besoin d’Europe electoral list lost a significant number of seats in the 2024 European Parliament election. The Popular Front has promised to fight antisemitism, even though it includes candidates who have been accused of making antisemitic remarks. But Mr Macron does have to reflect the make-up of the new Assembly, so if National Rally are the predominant party he could find it hard to choose someone else. It’s happened before, with domestic policy in the hands of the prime minister and foreign and defence policy in the hands of the president.
On 18 June, Bardella urged voters to give his party an “absolute majority” for it to be able to govern effectively, while pledging to cut energy taxes to 5.5% from 20%. Due to the suddenness of the dissolution of the National Assembly, significantly fewer candidates ran in the legislative elections in 2024 as compared to previous years, with only 4,010 candidates in 577 constituencies (the lowest figure since the 1988 election). The timeline for candidates to register for the first round of elections was from 12 June until 16 June, while the candidate registration deadline for the second round is 2 July. With pre-election polls suggesting that the 2024 legislative elections would feature the highest level of turnout in decades with an exceptionally tripolarised electorate, pre-election estimates of the potential number of three-way races were also at unprecedented levels, and ultimately 306 constituencies headed to three-way runoffs and 5 to four-way runoffs, with 89 three-way and 2 four-way runoffs remaining after candidate withdrawals announced ahead of the registration deadline for the second round. Such a dynamic reinforced the likelihood that higher turnout became an advantage for the National Rally, which received a clear plurality of the vote in pre-first round polls and as a result would be expected to win a greater share of seats due to the increased number of three-way races in the second round, not accounting for the possibility of candidate withdrawals.
Since Macron’s bombshell announcement of a snap vote, the political landscape in France has been changing at lightning speed, with new alliances emerging overnight and nasty break-ups playing out in public. Following a deal struck this month, the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and the Greens are running single candidates in 546 constituencies across France. Horizons, the party led by former PM Édouard Philippe (who has presidential ambitions), is going it alone, but may rejoin a coalition after the election. If her party leads a government that has a bumpy ride in office, it could reduce her chances of seizing the big prize.
But their victory is nowhere big enough to govern. Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version. Our chart and map will automatically update throughout the night as results are made available by the Interior Ministry.
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